A Race Against Time: Will Miran Join the Fed's Rate-Setting Team?

Stephen Miran, President Donald Trump's top economic advisor, is on track to secure a crucial Senate approval for his nomination to become a Federal Reserve governor. However, getting him ready to influence interest rate decisions at the upcoming Fed meeting seems unlikely. The Senate Banking Committee is set to vote on Miran's nomination, with Republicans expected to push it through despite Democratic opposition. Yet, the tight schedule and complex Senate rules make it doubtful that Miran will be confirmed in time for the Fed's September meeting. Even if the Senate approves Miran's nomination, several steps remain before he can join the Fed's rate-setting table. These include Trump signing the commission and the Fed swearing Miran in. The fastest this process has taken in recent history is four business days, which is a tight timeline given the Senate's busy schedule. Trump has been vocal about his desire for lower interest rates, and Miran's appointment would be his first chance to influence the Fed's policy in his current term. Two current Fed governors, Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, have already advocated for a rate cut, but the majority, including Chair Jerome Powell, have signaled a more cautious approach. During his confirmation hearing, Miran did not explicitly state his stance on interest rates but expressed his belief that inflation is decreasing and that tariffs won't reverse this trend. He also plans to keep his White House job, taking unpaid leave during his Fed term, a decision that has raised concerns about his independence. Senate Republicans are also considering changes to the nomination process to fast-track certain votes, which could impact the timeline for Miran's confirmation. However, with a packed Senate schedule, it remains uncertain whether these changes will be implemented in time to affect Miran's nomination.