A Slower Hiring Wave Could Shake Bitcoin’s Path

The U. S. jobs report due Friday shows a sharp drop in new hires, with only 62, 000 added this month compared to March’s 172, 000. Unemployment is expected to stay around 4. 3 %. At first glance, fewer jobs might look good for Bitcoin and other risky assets because a weaker labor market can suggest the Fed will keep rates flat this year, delaying any tightening until next year. Yet, investors are also watching wages. Average hourly earnings may climb 3. 8 % from last year, higher than the previous 3. 5 %. Persistent wage growth, coupled with high oil prices, could push inflation worries higher and make the Fed’s path more uncertain. Thus, Bitcoin’s price may react not just to job numbers but to whether wages cool off. Traders already expect possible rate hikes next year, so a softer wage report could spark a rally in risk assets.Current analysts see Bitcoin’s $75, 000 level as crucial support. A dip below that could trigger a broader trend reversal, while staying above it keeps the uptrend alive. Other factors loom: the Fed’s April meeting minutes, oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and global crude prices. Prediction markets rate a 97 % chance that tensions in the Hormuz will persist beyond May 15, which could harden a stagflation narrative if oil prices stay high. Market data shows the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index turning from a positive to a negative reading this week, signaling weaker demand on U. S. exchanges as Bitcoin struggles near $80, 000. Historically, sustained positive premiums have accompanied bull runs, so a return to premium could be a sign of further upside. Investors should keep an eye on the jobs release, wage growth figures, Fed minutes, and oil market developments to gauge Bitcoin’s next move.