Airline Turbulence: Trade Wars and Travel Trends

The airline industry is facing a rough patch. Southwest Airlines has joined Delta and United in pulling back its financial predictions. Why? The trade tensions sparked by the previous US president have created a lot of uncertainty. This is the biggest challenge the industry has faced since the COVID-19 pandemic. Travel is not a necessity for most people. When the economy looks shaky, both tourists and businesses cut back on travel. This makes it tough for airlines to plan ahead. Southwest, for instance, can't confirm its earlier earnings forecast for 2025 and 2026. The company's shares took a hit in after-hours trading. It's not just Southwest. Alaska Air Group also withdrew its 2025 profit forecast. Earlier, Delta Air Lines and Frontier did the same. United Airlines even gave two different forecasts in one month, showing how uncertain the situation is. This is a big change from a few months ago. Airlines were optimistic about a profit boom due to strong travel demand and limited capacity. But now, the domestic market is the weakest. Airlines are trying to boost demand with lower fares, but consumer spending is down, especially among lower-income households. Southwest, which relies heavily on leisure travelers, is feeling the pinch. Bookings slowed down in the March quarter, and the company expects a drop in unit revenue. This is a tough time for Southwest, which is still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. Its recent policy changes, like ending open seating and charging for checked bags, have added to the pressure. To protect its profits, Southwest is reducing capacity in the second half of the year. The company reported a smaller loss than expected in the first quarter, but the future is uncertain. The airline industry is in for a bumpy ride.