Alaska's Election Race Brings Unexpected Surprises

Alaska's political scene is heating up ahead of the 2026 midterms, and this year's races might not go the way most people expect. With no sitting governor running again, the state’s unique voting system could shake things up. Instead of the usual party battles, candidates from all sides will face off in a single primary, with the top four moving to November’s ranked-choice voting. This system could help lesser-known names rise above the noise. Early polls show Democrat Tom Begich leading the governor’s race, but he’s stuck under 50%. That means he’ll need to pull in more voters to avoid a runoff. Republicans aren’t sweating just yet—Dave Bronson, the former Anchorage mayor, is far behind, but the party still holds most of the other spots in the top four. The real question is who can win over the 31% of undecided voters, making this race far from settled.Over in the Senate battle, Democrat Mary Peltola—a former congresswoman—is running against Republican Dan Sullivan. Polls suggest it’s a tight race, with Peltola narrowly leading after the second round of counting. Alaska hasn’t voted blue in a presidential race since 1964, but recent trends show it’s becoming more competitive. A slight drop in Trump’s approval might be helping Democrats here, but Sullivan isn’t out of the fight just yet. Prediction markets are split—some give Republicans a slight edge in the governor’s race, while others favor Peltola in the Senate. The Cook Political Report still calls both races "Likely Republican, " but the margins are razor-thin. With so many voters still unsure, small shifts could flip the script entirely. The bigger story? Alaska might be turning into a battleground, thanks to its changing political winds. If national trends keep favoring Democrats, even traditionally red states like Alaska could see surprises.