Aliens, AI, and IPOs: Where Science Opinions Stand

Right now, the mood around big science questions is mostly skeptical. People currently seem to think that major breakthroughs are unlikely to happen soon. Expectations appear to be leaning toward doubt across several hot topics.

When it comes to space, the idea that the United States will confirm alien life does not have much backing. Most folks are doubtful that this will happen. In the business world, SpaceX, OpenAI, and ByteDance are all in the conversation for the largest public offering by market value. Opinions are divided on SpaceX, with a slight edge toward no. For OpenAI and ByteDance, the mood is overwhelmingly doubtful.

Artificial intelligence and famous math problems also draw a lot of skepticism. People clearly favor no when asked if AI will solve P versus NP next. The same doubtful view applies to the Hodge Conjecture and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture. There is some disagreement about whether any AI lab will announce a solution to a Millennium Prize problem soon, but the overall tone stays doubtful.

One area shows a bit more hope. Some people lean toward yes that the Exponential Time Hypothesis will be disproven. At the same time, claims about high rate gold alchemy through fusion are met with overwhelming doubt. The direction of public feeling remains mixed, but skepticism is the strongest current.