ASD Burden Rising in China and Globally: Study Insights

A new study looked at how autism spectrum disorder (ASD) affects people in China and around the world from 1990 to 2021. Researchers used data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 report to measure how common ASD is and how much it impacts daily life. They checked age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR) and disability-adjusted life years (ASDR) to understand the full picture.

In 2021, the ASPR per 100,000 people was 655.75 in China and 788.34 globally. The ASDR was 124.19 in China and 147.56 worldwide. These numbers show that ASD affects more people globally than just in China. The study also found that males are more likely to be diagnosed with ASD than females.

From 1990 to 2021, the rate of increase was faster in China. The average annual change in ASPR was 0.22% in China compared to 0.06% globally. For ASDR, it was 0.23% in China and 0.07% globally. This means the burden of ASD has been growing, especially in China.

The researchers used ARIMA models to guess what might happen from 2022 to 2031. They predicted a slight drop in ASPR in both China and globally. Global ASDR might also go down. But China's ASDR could rise. These are just model guesses and have not been tested with real future data.

The study shows that ASD is a growing health issue. It highlights the need for early detection, long-term care, and support for families. Policymakers should plan resources carefully. They should not rely only on these model predictions when making decisions.