Betting on the Future: The Rise of Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are online platforms where people can bet on the outcomes of future events. These markets have gained popularity in recent years, with platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket leading the way. Kalshi, which means everything in Arabic, allows users to trade on the outcomes of events ranging from sports games to political elections. The platform has seen significant growth since its launch, with trade volume increasing sixfold in just a few months. Kalshi's success can be attributed to its ability to tap into the growing trend of retail investing, where everyday individuals invest small amounts of money in stocks or crypto. However, prediction markets have also been breeding grounds for corruption and insider trading. There have been instances of traders making accurate predictions just hours before an event, raising suspicions of insider information. This has led to a new kind of paranoia, where people are constantly on the lookout for signs of insider activity. The mainstream news has also jumped on the prediction market bandwagon, with CNN and CNBC signing exclusive partnerships with Kalshi to integrate event-based probabilities across their platforms.Despite the potential for corruption, Kalshi's CEO Tarek Mansour believes that prediction markets will ultimately lead to a better relationship with the news. He argues that prediction markets provide a market-based, rational answer to the noise and confusion of the modern world. However, this view is reflective of the prediction market's core user base, a cohort of social media power-users who view reality as an unending scroll of text and video. Prediction markets create a panorama of human affairs derealized, broken into discrete events with binary outcomes. This is a computer's vision of the world, and it's a vision that's becoming increasingly prevalent in our society.