Bitcoin's September Struggles: What's Behind the Pattern?

Bitcoin has a reputation for struggling in September. Over the past decade, it has seen declines in eight out of eleven Septembers. This trend could be due to people cashing out after summer gains or needing funds for expenses like school or taxes. It's also a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy—traders expect drops, so they act cautiously, which can push prices down further. However, these September drops aren't usually extreme. They often mark a low point before Bitcoin rebounds in October, a month known for its price surges. For instance, in October 2020, Bitcoin jumped from around $10, 800 to over $13, 800, a gain of more than 27%. In August 2025, Bitcoin experienced a significant drop. It reached an all-time high of $124, 533 on August 14, then fell 11% to around $110, 000 in just two weeks. This drop was triggered by a large sale from a previously inactive "whale, " who sold about 24, 000 BTC. This sale caused a massive liquidation cascade, wiping out nearly $900 million in derivative positions. Most of these were bullish bets, with $150 million in Bitcoin and $320 million in Ethereum liquidated. Despite an 8% decline, Ethereum managed to stay above its 100-day moving average. The recent weakness wasn't just about technicals or sentiment. The market was thin, so any big sale, like the whale's, could cause significant price swings. On-chain data in late August also showed low activity and reduced inflows, which didn't help. Additionally, macroeconomic uncertainty plays a role. With the U. S. Federal Reserve's September policy moves in focus, traders are watching for signs of both risk and potential optimism, like a rate cut. So, what's in store for September? Crypto trader Cas Abbé outlines three possible scenarios. The most likely one, with a 40% chance, is that Bitcoin will trade sideways between $110K and $120K, as excess leverage is reduced and institutional investors gradually step in. This could set the stage for a stronger rally in the fourth quarter. If Bitcoin drops below $110K, there could be more liquidations, driving the price into the high $100Ks. Historically, these kinds of corrections often precede a strong bottom. On the other hand, if institutions buy aggressively, Bitcoin could quickly reclaim the $117K–$118K range and trigger an earlier return of bullish sentiment. Throughout September, traders should keep an eye on on-chain and macro signals. Options market activity leading up to the September 27 expiry could offer valuable insights into positioning and sentiment. Whether Bitcoin's September will be green or red this year is still up in the air, but with thin liquidity, heightened volatility, and institutional buyers waiting in the wings, September could bring both risks and opportunities.