Brazil election sees power shift after bank scandal shakes Bolsonaro's camp

Recent polls suggest Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has gained momentum in the presidential race, now leading opposition Senator Flavio Bolsonaro 47% to 43% in a potential runoff. The shift comes after allegations that Flavio may have secured a $24 million investment from the owner of defunct Banco Master to produce a film about his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro. Flavio denies wrongdoing, while the bank’s former owner, Daniel Vorcaro—currently in custody over the bank’s collapse—has not commented. The scandal surfaced just weeks before the election, following a report by Intercept Brasil. Before these allegations, both candidates were tied at 43% each in the polls. Now, if Flavio steps aside, his sister Michelle Bolsonaro could take his place, though Lula would still lead her 48% to 43% in a runoff. Without Flavio in the race, Lula would also dominate the first round with 41%, compared to Michelle’s 22%. Other candidates like Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema trail far behind.The Datafolha poll, conducted May 20-21 among 2, 004 people, has a 2% margin of error. Another poll by AtlasIntel/Bloomberg last week showed a similar lead for Lula over Flavio. These numbers suggest voters may be reacting to the scandal rather than just policies. Flavio’s legal team has dismissed the claims, but public opinion doesn’t always wait for court rulings. What’s clear is that Brazil’s election is tightening not just over political debates, but over financial scandals too. The race now rests on how voters weigh integrity against loyalty to the Bolsonaro name.