Breaking the Cycle: Lebanon's Peace in the Balance

Lebanon's fragile peace hangs in the balance. The 60-day ceasefire, initially set to end on January 26, has been extended to February 18. But is this enough to ensure lasting peace? Israel has maintained its presence in Lebanon, and small skirmishes have already begun to threaten the fragile calm. The international community must step up to prevent a full-blown conflict. The UN has a history of deploying peacekeeping forces in Lebanon, but these missions have often fallen short. Since 1978, the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) has been tasked with maintaining peace and assisting the Lebanese government. However, UNIFIL's efforts have repeatedly failed to prevent violence. The most recent example is the October 7, 2023, attack by Hezbollah on Israel, which caught UNIFIL off guard. Hezbollah had built up significant military capabilities right under UNIFIL's watch. Why has UNIFIL struggled so much? The answer lies in its limited mandate and rules of engagement. UNIFIL forces are lightly armed and equipped, and their primary role is to monitor ceasefires and support the Lebanese Armed Forces. They are not authorized to use force except in self-defense, and they can only act with the consent of the Lebanese government. This has made them ineffective in confronting Hezbollah, a powerful and well-armed militia. Lebanon's political landscape adds another layer of complexity. Hezbollah is not just a militant group; it's also a major political player. The Lebanese government has been hesitant to challenge Hezbollah militarily, fearing it could spark another civil war. In 2008, when Hezbollah forces took control of parts of Beirut, the Lebanese Army did little to stop them. This reluctance to confront Hezbollah has allowed the group to gain more power and influence. The recent appointment of a new president and prime minister in Lebanon offers a glimmer of hope. However, any new government is unlikely to risk challenging Hezbollah militarily. The Lebanese Army's weakness and Hezbollah's political influence mean that a multinational force would need to operate independently to enforce the ceasefire. This force would need robust equipment, including heavy armor and air support, and more permissive rules of engagement. The UN has established mechanisms for providing more robust rules of engagement to peacekeeping forces under Chapter VII of the UN Charter. This approach could help address the challenges in Lebanon. A more robust force with ample capabilities and authorities would not only address the concerns of troop-contributing countries but also the apprehensions of Israeli and Lebanese leaders. By weakening Hezbollah's hold in Southern Lebanon, such a force could help the Lebanese government lessen Hezbollah's influence and strengthen its autonomy. Lebanon's instability didn't start with the recent conflict. The country has experienced significant turmoil since 1958, culminating in a brutal civil war that lasted over a decade. The recent fighting between Israel and Hezbollah is just the latest chapter in this ongoing story. To break the cycle of violence, the international community must be willing to take bold action. A robust peacekeeping force with a clear mandate and the ability to act independently could be the key to lasting peace in Lebanon.