Caribbean Braces for Tropical Storm Melissa's Potential Fury

Current Status

• Movement: West-northwest at a slow pace
• Winds: 50 mph
• Concern: Slow movement allows the storm to gather strength over warm Caribbean waters

Areas on High Alert

• Haiti: Hurricane Watch in effect for the south coast
• Jamaica: Tropical Storm Watch in effect
• Primary Threat: Heavy rain and flooding due to prolonged torrential downpours

Current Conditions

• Wind Shear: High wind shear is currently keeping heavy rains south of Haiti and the Dominican Republic
• Future Prediction: Wind shear is expected to decrease, allowing Melissa to strengthen
• Warm Waters: The storm is moving through some of the warmest waters recorded this late in the season

Uncertain Future Path

• If Strengthens Quickly: Could be pulled northward by a trough of low pressure, affecting Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the Bahamas
• If Remains Weak: Could continue northwestward or westward, threatening Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba

Intensity Concerns

• Slow Strengthening: Expected over the next three days
• Rapid Intensification: Possible, especially if it moves into the western Caribbean
• Cooler Subsurface Water: Slow movement could churn up cooler water, but ample oceanic heat may counteract this

Historical Context

• Hurricane Matthew (2016): Caused immense damage and loss of life
• Hurricane Wilma (2005): Set records for rapid intensification
• Hurricane Mitch (1998): Particularly devastating, with over 11,000 confirmed fatalities