Chatter Around Brazil, France and US Midterms: Who Might Win and Who Probably Won't

People currently seem to think that Tarcisio de Freitas has little chance of winning Brazil's presidential race. The same doubt applies to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Jair Bolsonaro, with most folks believing none of them will take the top spot. When looking at who might lead after the first round of voting, many expect Flavio Bolsonaro to come out ahead, while Lula looks like a strong candidate for second place. Bolsonaro senior, meanwhile, is not seen as likely to finish in the runner‑up position. Some observers also note that the race feels open, with many voters still undecided about who will ultimately prevail.

Regarding the United States midterms, the mood is split. Some observers feel it is possible for Democrats to hold both the Senate and the House, but the idea of a Democratic Senate paired with a Republican House gets little support. Likewise, a Republican Senate with a Democratic House is viewed as unlikely. A few commentators mention that the balance of power could shift in unexpected ways, keeping the outcome hard to predict.

In France, the picture for the upcoming presidential contest is mixed. Views on Marine Le Pen are divided, with a slight tilt toward thinking she will not win. Jordan Bardella and Éric Zemmour are both seen as long shots, with most people leaning toward a no for each of them. At the same time, a small segment of the public wonders if any outsider could break through, adding a touch of uncertainty to the outlook.

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