Climate Change and Your Paycheck: What the Numbers Really Say

The idea that climate change is shrinking U. S. salaries by 12% is making the rounds, but does it hold up? Let's break it down. First, the claim comes from a study that imagines a world without man-made greenhouse gas emissions. It then estimates how much richer Americans would be in that imaginary scenario. That's not real data; it's a guess. If climate change were really cutting salaries by 12%, we'd see it in the economy. But we don't. Instead, the U. S. economy has grown, productivity has risen, and living standards have improved. That doesn't sound like an economy being hurt by climate change, does it? The study also admits its numbers are shaky. The estimated income loss could be as low as 2% or as high as 22%. That's a huge range! It shows the number isn't reliable.Moreover, history shows that colder periods, not warmer ones, have brought slower growth and food shortages. Warmer periods have generally supported longer growing seasons and higher yields. So why assume today's temperatures are economically harmful? The claim also ignores the role of CO2 and modern agriculture in boosting productivity. Rising CO2 has contributed to increased plant growth and leaf area across large portions of Earth. Crop yields for staples like wheat, corn, and rice have risen strongly over recent decades. Those are real-world outcomes, not guesses. Most revealing is what the article cannot show: an actual decline in U. S. salaries attributable to climate change. No such decline exists. What exists instead is a growing economy, rising productivity, improving agricultural output, and falling climate-related mortality during the very period when temperatures increased modestly.