Coal's Unexpected Comeback: What's Driving the Surge?

Coal, once on the decline, is making a surprising comeback. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that global coal demand is expected to reach a record high this year. This is not what experts predicted. For the past three years, they thought coal use had peaked and would start to drop. But that didn't happen. Several factors are driving this unexpected trend. In India, heavy monsoon rains led to a drop in coal use, but this was offset by increases elsewhere. In the United States, natural gas prices have risen, making coal a more attractive option for power plants. Even in Europe, where coal use has been falling, the decline has slowed down.China, the world's largest coal consumer, saw little change in its coal demand this year. The IEA says China's energy needs and how quickly it switches to renewable energy will shape global coal demand in the near future. Looking ahead, the IEA expects global coal demand to tick lower by 2030. But there are many uncertainties. If China's electricity demand grows faster than expected, or if renewable energy integration slows down, global coal demand could rise above current forecasts. The IEA also notes that the pace of electricity demand growth, policy approaches, and coal substitution in various sectors and regions are all major uncertainties. These factors will play a significant role in shaping the future of coal demand.