College Basketball Playoffs: Who’s Favored and Why

The 2026 college basketball playoffs are almost here, with all 68 teams already chosen. The opening round, called the First Four, starts Tuesday and Wednesday. Big names like Duke, Arizona, Michigan and Florida are seeded first and are the clear favorites to win their early games. In the First Four, UMBC is seen as a slight better chance than Howard, while NC State edges Texas. Texas had beaten NC State earlier in the season at a neutral site. On Wednesday, SMU is considered a strong favorite over Miami (OH), who had not lost during the regular season. Lehigh, the champion of its league, is a bit more likely to win against Prairie View A&M. The rest of the first round shows many clear favorites. Ohio State is expected to beat TCU, Nebraska almost surely defeats Troy, Louisville should win against South Florida, Wisconsin looks set to beat High Point, and Duke is a massive favorite over Siena. Vanderbilt should win easily against McNeese, Michigan State has a high chance versus North Dakota State, Arkansas is favored over Hawai‘i, and North Carolina should beat VCU.Later in the day, the matchups involve teams like Saint Louis vs. Georgia, Gonzaga versus Kennesaw State, and Houston against Idaho. The odds show big teams like Illinois, Kansas, and UConn as heavy favorites over their opponents. In the final part of the day, Kentucky is expected to beat Santa Clara, Texas Tech should win over Akron, Arizona is a huge favorite against Long Island, and Virginia should defeat Wright State. Tennessee State is likely to lose to Iowa State, Alabama should beat Hofstra, and Villanova may win against Utah State. The later games feature teams like SMU vs. Miami (OH) again, Tennessee versus a smaller team, Clemson against Iowa, St. John’s vs. Northern Iowa, UCLA over UCF, Purdue versus Queens, Florida against Lehigh, Kansas against California Baptist, UConn versus Furman, and Miami beating Missouri. In every case, the higher‑seeded teams are projected to win by large margins. These odds come from a popular sports betting site and can change at any time. Fans watching the games will see if the favorites live up to expectations or if surprise upsets happen.