COVID Numbers Rise, But Not Like Before

Rising Cases, But Not as Severe as Before

COVID-19 is making a comeback in the U.S., but it's not as bad as before. As schools reopened and colder months approached, COVID cases and hospitalizations started to climb. However, they are still much lower than in previous years.

Key Statistics

Hospitalization Rate (Week Ending August 9): 1.7 per 100,000 people (double what it was two months ago, according to the CDC).
Test Positivity Rate (Week Ending August 23): 11.2% (a significant increase from the 3.3% seen in the prior two months).

Comparisons to Previous Years

Despite these increases, the situation is not as dire as it was last year. Hospitalization rates are about three times lower than at the same time last year. The percentage of weekly tests coming back positive is about two times lower compared to the same period last year.

Deaths and Vaccination Confusion

Weekly Deaths: Roughly 200 Americans have been dying from COVID every week over the past two months, according to CDC data.
Vaccination Eligibility: The FDA approved updated versions of the shots for those over age 65 and younger Americans who are at high risk for severe disease. Federal health officials have insisted that anyone who wants the shot can receive it.

Regional Trends and Variants

Test Positivity Rates

CDC data shows test positivity has increased above 10% in much of the southwest and western U.S. as kids head to class. Experts believe this is due to the usual factors of more than six months since a lot of people got COVID and new variants.

Dominant Variants

As of the week ending August 30:

XFG (Omicron Offshoot): 78% of new COVID cases.
NB.1.8.1 (Omicron Offshoot): 14% of new COVID cases.
LP.8.1 (Omicron Offshoot): 3% of new COVID cases.

Experts say that the currently circulating variants are all members of the omicron family. This means there are no major mutations that make the virus more transmissible or more infectious. They are like cousins, sharing characteristics of being fairly contagious and causing mild disease.

Future Vaccines and Rollout

Upcoming Vaccines

Fortunately, the vaccines that will become available this fall should provide reasonable protection against serious disease caused by these variants. Pfizer-BioNTech said its 2025-2026 COVID vaccine will target the LP.8.1 sublineage in line with FDA guidance to more closely match circulating strains.

Vaccination Rollout

It remains unclear how COVID vaccinations will be rolled out in the U.S. Recently, CVS said how it offers the shots will vary by state due to "the current regulatory environment."

34 States: Americans can receive the COVID vaccine at a CVS pharmacy.
13 States and Washington, D.C.: Americans can be vaccinated, depending on age, with a prescription.
3 States (Massachusetts, Nevada, New Mexico): The COVID vaccine isn't being offered.

Expert Advice

Experts are worried about low vaccination rates as the country heads into respiratory virus season during the fall and winter months. As vaccination rates decline, fewer people are going to get vaccines, even if they wanted to. This could lead to some hospitalizations and deaths that could have been prevented.

Recommendations

Get Vaccinated: Experts advise those who can receive the COVID vaccine to do so, along with the annual influenza vaccine.
Practice Caution: Those with risk factors for severe disease should be more cautious. This could mean wearing a mask in crowded environments or practicing social distancing.