Did Voting Spread COVID-19 in Bavaria?

In March 2020, the German state of Bavaria held regional elections. The vote took place on March 15. This was just after the World Health Organization said COVID-19 was a global pandemic. A team of researchers asked a simple question. Did the election help spread the virus?

To find out, they studied all 96 districts in Bavaria. They built comparison groups for each district. These groups came from German districts outside Bavaria. This method let them see what might have happened if the election had not occurred.

The researchers found something important. More than one-third of the rise in positive test results could not be explained by local factors. These factors included demographics, the economy, health, and child care. Distance to Ischgl also did not explain it. Ischgl was a ski resort tied to the first wave of COVID-19 in Germany.

Within Bavaria, the pattern was clear. Districts with higher voter turnout saw sharper increases in COVID-19 cases and deaths after the election. This remained true even after considering other possible causes. Those causes included distance to Ischgl and the number of strong-beer festivals in each area.

The results held up under many checks. They suggest that the bad timing of the election likely helped an infectious disease spread among the people.