Fossil Fuel Roadmap: Who's Really Blocking Progress at COP30?

At the recent COP30 climate talks in Belém, a mysterious "informal list" of 84 countries supposedly opposed to a fossil fuel roadmap caused quite a stir. This list, compiled by the Brazilian presidency, was meant to show who was blocking progress on transitioning away from fossil fuels. However, a closer look reveals some serious inconsistencies and errors. For starters, 14 countries appear on both the list of supporters and opposers. This happens because many countries belong to multiple negotiating blocs. For example, Kiribati, Solomon Islands, and Tuvalu are part of both the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) and the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) group. The LDCs, which include 42 nations, were incorrectly included in the list of opposers. In reality, the LDCs had publicly backed the idea of a fossil fuel roadmap before COP30. The list also includes all 42 members of the LDCs, except for Afghanistan and Myanmar, who were not present at the talks. Some LDC nations had even publicly backed a fossil fuel roadmap. Manjeet Dhakal, lead adviser to the LDC chair, clarified that the LDCs, as a bloc, did not oppose a fossil fuel roadmap during the COP30 negotiations. He emphasized that the group's expectations, made public before COP, clearly identified transitioning away from fossil fuels as an "urgent action" to keep the Paris Agreement's 1. 5C goal "within reach. " Moreover, the list includes 37 of the 54 nations within the Africa group, which was chaired by Tanzania in Belém. However, this seems to be a result of the mistaken inclusion of the LDCs in the list, many of which sit within both blocs. The list also includes three EU members - Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, and Hungary. The EU was reportedly at the heart of efforts to land a deal that explicitly included a "roadmap" for transitioning away from fossil fuels. The confusion doesn't end there. The Guardian reported that Brazil's COP30 president, André Corrêa do Lago, insisted that 80 countries were against the plan, though these figures were never substantiated. A negotiator told the Guardian, "We don’t understand where that number comes from. " Adding to the confusion, the Guardian also said two of the most powerful members of the LMDCs were not opposed to a roadmap, reporting: "China, having demurred on the issue, indicated it would not stand in the way