Four Days Out: Key Midterm Battles Take Shape

The midterm elections are just four days away. Reporters from NBC News are fanned out across the country. They are talking to candidates, campaign workers, and voters. The goal is to understand what is driving the biggest races.

In Ohio, the governor contest has taken a sharp turn. Republican Vivek Ramaswamy ran an ad that featured the estranged mother of his Democratic opponent, Amy Acton. The move backfired and energized Democrats in a state that has grown redder since Trump's rise. A private poll funded by a Republican group now shows Ramaswamy down by eight points, a six‑point drop from an earlier survey.

Michigan's Senate race is also heating up. Republican Mike Rogers is facing Democrat Abdul El‑Sayed, who would be the first Muslim senator if elected. At a rally, Senator Ted Cruz labeled El‑Sayed a 'theocratic zealot' and a 'jihadist leprechaun.' Cruz also tied him to the Muslim Brotherhood, a group El‑Sayed has denounced. That language has become a regular part of Republican ads and events, and some voters are repeating it.

Georgia has two high‑profile contests, but only the governor's race is tight. Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms and Republican Rick Jackson are fighting for voters who also support Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff, who leads his Republican challenger. Bottoms has appeared with Ossoff and runs ads highlighting his endorsement. Jackson, meanwhile, has softened his earlier embrace of Trump.

In New Hampshire, Trump has avoided the state after losing it three times. Republican John E. Sununu is leaning into that distance. His new TV ad tells voters he has never even met the former president. An analysis of more than six hundred October TV ads shows Democratic Senate candidates stressing corruption, high costs, and Trump. Republican ads focus on immigration, crime, and transgender issues.