Google's New Tool: Betting on the Future with Kalshi and Polymarket

Google is set to enhance its finance tools with a new feature that includes odds from prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket. This integration could expose millions of users to these platforms, which are currently facing legal challenges.

Platforms' Legal Status

Kalshi and Polymarket argue that their platforms are not gambling sites. They offer "event contracts" regulated like commodities. However, many lawmakers and state attorneys general disagree, believing these platforms are essentially sports betting in disguise.

Google's Integration

Google states that this integration will allow users to inquire about future events. For instance, users can ask about GDP growth in 2025. The tool will display current probabilities and track changes over time. It remains unclear if this will directly link to Kalshi and Polymarket's websites.

Legal and Operational Challenges

Both platforms operate in legal gray areas worldwide, facing restrictions in the U.S., Australia, and France. Kalshi is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and claims it can operate in all 50 states, including those that ban sports betting. However, state attorneys general and anti-gambling groups are challenging this in court.

Polymarket has faced allegations of market manipulation. Researchers found that up to 25% of its trading volume may be artificially inflated. There have also been disputes about how these platforms determine if an event has occurred. For example, a bet on whether Ukraine's president would wear a suit by July 2025 turned into a debate about what counts as a suit.

Regulatory Environment

The regulatory environment for these platforms is evolving. The Trump administration has been supportive. Donald Trump Jr. advises both companies. The CFTC dropped a case against Kalshi, which helped Polymarket regain access to the U.S. market.

Investments and Future Plans

Both companies have received significant investments. Polymarket is now valued at around $8 billion, while Kalshi is valued at $5 billion. The Trump family is also entering this market. Truth Social, a platform owned by the Trump family, plans to launch a crypto-based betting platform called Truth Predict.