Heatwave Forecasting: How AI is Changing the Game

In the fight against extreme heat, understanding and predicting heatwaves is becoming more important than ever. With global temperatures on the rise, being able to forecast these events accurately can make a big difference in keeping people safe and prepared. This is where deep learning (DL) models come into play. These advanced computer models, including Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), and Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) networks, are being used to analyze weather data and predict extreme heat. The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has provided five years of meteorological data for this purpose. The goal is to make these models more understandable and useful for predicting heatwaves. One of the challenges in using these models is making them easy to understand. This is where Explainable AI (XAI) techniques come in. By integrating XAI with DL models, researchers can make the models' predictions more transparent and interpretable. This is crucial for identifying the key factors that contribute to extreme heat events. The study examined key variables such as temperature, pressure, humidity, wind, and precipitation. The findings showed that the LSTM model was the most accurate, with a lead time of 1-3 days and a high accuracy rate of 96. 2%. This means that the LSTM model can predict extreme heat events up to three days in advance with a high degree of accuracy. The study also found that humidity and maximum temperature were the most important factors in predicting extreme heat events. The use of XAI methods, such as SHAP and LIME, helped to identify the significance of these factors. By making the models more understandable, researchers can improve the accuracy of heatwave forecasting and develop better strategies for reducing the risks associated with extreme heat. This is particularly important in regions like Pakistan, where extreme heat can have a significant impact on daily life. The study highlights the importance of investigating complex DL models that integrate XAI for the prediction of extreme heat. By making these models more understandable, researchers can identify important parameters and improve the accuracy of heatwave forecasting. This, in turn, can help to guide risk-reduction strategies and keep people safe during extreme heat events.