SCIENCE

How Confidence is Shaped by Noise and Boost

Tue Apr 22 2025
In the last ten years, experts have been trying to figure out how people rate their confidence after making a decision. One common way to do this is by using a measure called meta-d'. This measure helps to see how well people can tell the difference between their confidence levels for correct and incorrect decisions. However, a new approach has been introduced. It is called the CNCB model. This model focuses on two key factors: confidence noise and confidence boost. Confidence noise is like static that messes up our confidence judgments. It is different from the noise that affects how well we sense things. Confidence boost, on the other hand, shows whether our confidence is based on the same information we used to make our decision or if it is based on new information. This model provides a clear way to measure how well our confidence works. It is different from the commonly used M-ratio, which is not based on a specific theory. The CNCB model can be used in different ways. For example, it can be used in experiments where there are more than two confidence levels or more than two levels of stimulus strength. It can also be used with continuous confidence ratings, which means it does not need to group these ratings into categories. This model includes a way to map out how objective and subjective confidence probabilities are related. This mapping can be estimated and understood. The CNCB model aims to give a deeper understanding of confidence rating data. It is a tool that researchers can use to analyze their data in a new way. Some examples of how this model can be used are provided in a supplementary file. This model could change how researchers think about and study confidence. However, it is important to think critically about this model. While it offers a new perspective, it is just one way to look at confidence rating data. Other factors and models might also play a role in how people rate their confidence. It is always good to consider different views and approaches when studying complex topics like confidence. In the end, the CNCB model is a step forward in understanding how confidence is shaped by noise and boost. It provides a new tool for researchers and a new way of thinking about confidence. But it is just one piece of the puzzle. There is still much to learn and explore in the world of confidence rating data.

questions

    Is the CNCB model a plot to make researchers dependent on a new set of parameters?
    How does the CNCB model account for individual differences in confidence judgments?
    How does the CNCB model handle scenarios where confidence ratings are manipulated or biased?

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