Iran’s Move Holds the Key to Restoring Global Oil Flow

Saudi Aramco recently told its buyers that it did not know which port would handle April shipments. The message showed a new fact: Iran, not the United States, can decide when the global oil market opens again. A buyer in Saudi Arabia laughed that he would call Iran to find out when the war ends so he can get his oil. The joke reveals a growing belief that even if Washington and Israel say the war is over, Iran can keep the conflict alive. The U. S. has claimed victory in a few days or weeks, but Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz shut by firing drones and missiles at ships. About twenty percent of worldwide oil and gas goes through that strait, so the blockage hurts many industries. Middle‑East firms say simply declaring peace is not enough to restart shipping. Tehran can still use low‑cost drones to block routes for months after fighting stops. The U. S. has offered military escorts and asked allies to protect the strait, but experts say that will not work unless Iran stops threatening vessels. If Washington and Israel win on terms Tehran does not accept, the Iranian side will likely cause more disruption.Drones even hit an oil loading hub in the UAE after U. S. strikes on Iran’s main export terminal. This shows there is no safe harbor in the current conflict, and Washington cannot set all the rules. Yemen’s Iran‑backed Houthis could add pressure by attacking Saudi Arabia’s only alternative export port. Such moves would hurt the energy industry and the global economy even more. The crisis has shaken confidence in shipping routes. Insurance for shipments is now harder to get and more expensive because of the higher risk. The attacks have shut refineries in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Israel, pushing oil prices up by as much as 60%. Even if the conflict ends quickly, markets will still feel the shock for weeks. Oil companies may take longer to return to the Gulf, delaying field restarts and risking damage to reservoirs. Aramco shut two offshore fields, cutting its output by 20%. Iraq’s production fell 70%, and the UAE halved its output. Total Middle‑East cuts now reach 7–10 million barrels per day, or about 7–10% of global demand. Qatar stopped LNG production, taking 20% off world supplies and warned customers that cargoes may not arrive until May. Safety is the main reason for these shutdowns: “We cannot risk lives, ” an industry source said.