WEATHER
Knoxville's Winter Preview: What to Expect in 2025-26
East Tennessee, Knoxville, USASat Oct 18 2025
The leaves are falling, and mornings are getting chillier. But how cold will it get? And when might we see snow?
Frost and Freeze Dates
- Average first frost: October 24 (Knoxville)
- Median first freeze: November 2
Winter Outlook
The National Weather Service predicts a milder winter for East Tennessee:
- 33% to 40% chance of warmer-than-average temperatures in December, January, and February.
Snow Predictions
- Mid-November: Mixed rain and snow possible.
- Great Smoky Mountains and Appalachian regions: More snow than usual expected.
- First snow last year:
- Great Smoky Mountains: October 15 near LeConte Lodge.
- Knoxville: December 11, 2024.
- Average snowfall in Knoxville: 4.6 inches per winter.
Winter Solstice
- Date: December 21, 2025 (shortest day of the year).
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questions
What factors could potentially cause the winter of 2025-26 in East Tennessee to be colder than the mild winter predicted by both the Old Farmer's Almanac and the National Weather Service?
How accurate have the Old Farmer's Almanac and the National Weather Service been in their past winter forecasts for East Tennessee, and could their track records influence the reliability of their current predictions?
What are the limitations of long-range weather forecasting, and how might these limitations impact the accuracy of the predictions for the 2025-26 winter in East Tennessee?
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