Biofuel growth could worsen food prices as oil spikes

Rising global oil costs have pushed more countries to add biofuels to gasoline. Governments in America, Indonesia, Brazil and Thailand now require extra plant-based fuel to be mixed into regular petrol. This move follows attacks that disrupted Middle East oil routes and pushed crude toward $100 a barrel. Analysts think global biofuel use could jump almost a third this year. If oil stays scarce, that demand might triple by 2030. Farmers face a double squeeze. Key fertilizers travel through hot-spot shipping lanes hit by conflict. Prices have shot up, lifting the cost of staples like corn and wheat. About one of every twenty tonnes of fertilizer worldwide goes to crops grown for fuel not food. In Indonesia the figure rises to one in five. Food inflation is already running between 2 and 5 percent higher this year.Turning food into fuel has deep roots. A decade ago experts warned that diverting corn to ethanol would lift grain prices sharply. History seems to repeat itself. During the 2008 food crisis, studies blamed biofuels for two-thirds of the jump in corn and soybean costs. Some now call the policy a bet on green energy that crowds out meals. Others point out biofuels are not even cleaner than oil once land use is counted. Land grabs could get worse. Meeting the 20 percent biofuel goal for road fuel would require farmland larger than South Africa. That pits fuel tanks against dinner plates on a massive scale. Critics ask why governments bet on biofuels when electric cars and better grids need far less soil. Solar panels on three percent of current biofuel land could power one-third of the world’s cars without cutting food output. Recycled cooking oil and farm waste can slightly cut emissions. Yet these sources remain small and often recycled already for animal feed or industry. Meanwhile, Russia’s fertilizer halt and dwindling phosphorus stocks remind us that green fixes still rely on finite resources. No single path solves both energy and food crises at once.