Bitcoin's Death Cross: Should You Worry or Wait?

Bitcoin's recent "death cross" has sparked worry among investors. This happens when the 50-day average price drops below the 200-day average price. It's a signal that often makes people nervous. But, looking back at history, this signal hasn't always meant bad news. In fact, Bitcoin's price has often gone up after a death cross. Since 2011, the median return six months after a death cross was about 30%. And after 12 months, it was roughly 89%. So, this signal might not be as scary as it seems. The bigger picture matters more than the signal itself. For example, in 2011, 2015, 2020, and 2023, the death cross appeared near the bottom of the market. After these points, Bitcoin's price surged. In contrast, in 2014, 2018, and 2022, the death cross showed up before the selling was done. So, the market's overall state is more important than the signal.The most recent death cross happened in 2024, in what's called the "post-ETF regime. " During this time, Bitcoin's price went up by about 58% over the next six months and roughly 94% over 12 months. This was different from earlier cycles because ETF-related demand and institutional flows played a bigger role. Bitcoin's price has already gone down by more than 30%. The death cross is happening after this drop, not before. The distance between the price and the short-term averages is no longer widening. This is a common early sign that the downside might be exhausted. If selling resumes, the next area where buyers are likely to respond is near $75, 000 to $77, 000. This is where prior demand and untested liquidity align. The bias would improve if Bitcoin breaks and holds above the descending trendline and reclaims the $92, 000 to $95, 000 region.