Bitcoin's Holiday Slump: A Look at Past Dips and Potential Surges

Bitcoin's value has dropped by about 7% since last Christmas. This might seem like bad news, but looking back, similar drops have often been followed by big gains. Over the past 12 years, there have been three times when Bitcoin's value was lower on Christmas Eve than the year before: in 2014, 2018, and 2022. Each time, the next year saw a big jump in value. For example, in 2014, Bitcoin's value fell by over half, but the next year it went up by about 41%. In 2018, it dropped by nearly 71%, but in 2019, it climbed by almost 79%. The same thing happened in 2022 and 2023, with a drop of nearly 67% followed by a rise of almost 160%.This year, Bitcoin's value started around $94, 120, reached a peak of over $126, 000 in October, and then fell sharply. As of Christmas Eve 2025, it's trading around $87, 000, down nearly 30% from its peak. This drop is part of one of the weakest fourth quarters on record for Bitcoin. The value has been stuck in a narrow range, partly because of tax-related selling and lower trading activity during the holidays. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could see a big rise in 2026. Based on past patterns, experts predict Bitcoin could reach between $125, 000 and $200, 000. Several factors could drive this growth. For instance, Bitcoin ETFs have attracted over $132 billion since they launched. Companies are also holding more Bitcoin, with corporate treasuries adding to their holdings. Additionally, the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates, which usually helps Bitcoin's value. The government has also started a Bitcoin reserve, and falling hash rates could signal a coming rise in value.