Coffee Prices Rise as Rain, Stocks and Weather Shake the Market

Rain in Brazil is keeping farmers busy. The extra water delays harvests and makes the coffee beans harder to grow, so buyers are paying more. A new cold front is expected to bring over 50 millimetres of rain to southern Brazil this week, which could lower the quality of the crop. Coffee stocks are running low. The International Coffee Exchange (ICE) recorded its smallest arabica inventory in more than two years, while robusta stocks fell to a two‑year low earlier this month. When supplies shrink, prices tend to climb. On the supply side, a new path has opened in the Strait of Hormuz. The route’s reopening should cut shipping costs, insurance and fuel prices worldwide, easing pressure on coffee importers and roasters. This change is good for the market because it reduces costs that normally push prices up. Weather worries are also keeping traders cautious. The U. S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says there is a 67 % chance of a strong El Niño this year.If it hits, rain could be delayed in Brazil during the crucial flowering period, hurting next season’s crop. Japanese meteorologists confirm that an El Niño pattern has already formed across the equatorial Pacific, setting up a year of floods and droughts that could hurt coffee production in both Asia and South America. Last month, some forecasts had coffee prices low because of an expected bumper crop in Brazil. The U. S. Department of Agriculture’s foreign agriculture service projected a record 71. 9 million bags for the 2026/27 season, and another bank lifted its global surplus estimate. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s coffee exports jumped, giving robusta sellers a bearish signal. Even the International Coffee Organization reported a slight drop in global exports for the current marketing year, adding to the mixed signals. Overall, coffee traders are watching weather patterns and inventory levels closely. While lower shipping costs help keep prices stable, heavy rains in Brazil and a possible El Niño create uncertainty that could push coffee prices higher again.