Crime Slows When It Gets Cold in Cleveland

Cleveland’s winter chill is more than a nuisance for pipes and sidewalks; it also seems to keep many offenders inside. Recent studies show that violent crimes—like assaults and robberies—tend to climb during warm months, while they drop when temperatures dip. Data from 2021‑2025 reveal that the city averages about 514 aggravated assaults in January and February, but this figure jumps to roughly 746 during July and August. A similar trend appears in homicides: the winter average is 17 per month, whereas summer months see almost 28. Police call volumes mirror the pattern. During a brief cold spell from Jan. 23 to Feb. 1, officers handled 3, 427 calls. In contrast, a hot stretch from June 20 to 29 saw 7, 132 calls—a rise of more than 100 %. These spikes coincide with the hottest days recorded in 2025. Why does heat encourage crime? One explanation comes from “routine activities theory. ”Warm weather draws people outdoors, creating more chances for offenders to encounter targets.When the sun is out, motivated criminals have greater access to potential victims, leading to what researchers call “crimes of opportunity. ” Another factor is seasonal aggression. Heat can make people irritable and more likely to act violently. Studies show that prolonged periods of high temperature—especially five days or longer—correlate with increased domestic‑violence hotline calls. During the COVID‑19 lockdowns, these patterns were especially clear as more people stayed at home. The relationship between temperature and crime isn’t universal. In hotter regions, extreme heat can actually deter criminal activity because people stay indoors to escape the swelter. Research from Northeastern University suggests that in cities where temperatures reach the 90s, crime rates may decline. Cleveland is not alone; cities in northern Canada and the U. S. see similar drops during heavy snowfall, though robberies and vehicle thefts can still rise. Thus, while winter may bring a temporary lull in typical crime rates, it also reminds us that environmental factors can shape human behavior in complex ways.