Early Voting Trends: Who's Ahead in NYC, New Jersey, and Virginia?

Early voting numbers are starting to give us a peek into how things might go in the upcoming elections in New York City, New Jersey, and Virginia. Let's break it down. In New Jersey, Democrats are showing up more than Republicans for early voting. This is good news for the Democratic candidate for governor, Mikie Sherrill. Compared to last year, Democrats are doing better in both mail-in and in-person early voting. Mail-in ballots are a big part of the early vote, and Democrats are leading in that area too. In New York City, older voters have been turning out more for early voting among Democrats. This is a shift from the primary, where younger voters played a big role in Zohran Mamdani's surprise win. However, the electorate is still younger than in past mayoral elections, and it's getting younger as the week goes on. Polls show that younger voters strongly support Mamdani, while Cuomo has a smaller lead among older voters. The geographic distribution of votes also seems to favor Cuomo more than it did in the primary, but it might not be enough for him to catch up to Mamdani among early voters.In Virginia, the story is a bit different. Voters don't register by party, but the geographic breakdown of early votes suggests that Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger is in a slightly stronger position than Kamala Harris was at this point last year. Mail ballots, which usually favor Democrats, make up a larger share of the early vote this year. However, in-person early voting has slightly favored Republicans. The worst performing counties so far have been those where Trump won big last year. It's important to remember that early voting data can give us hints, but it's not a perfect predictor of the final outcome. We won't know for sure how things will turn out until Election Day.