Hurricane Rafael: A November Surprise in the Gulf

Hurricane Rafael made history on Wednesday, October 6, as it swept into Cuba with winds of 115 mph (185 km/h), becoming the first major November hurricane to hit the island since Hurricane Michelle in 2001. Rafael's rapid intensification, a 55 mph boost in just 24 hours, was fueled by unusually warm Caribbean sea temperatures, a phenomenon made 60 times more likely by climate change. Traveling northwest, Rafael brushed past Havana, causing massive power disruptions in Cuba's electrical grid, which was already recovering from a complete failure just a week before. Despite its intensity, Rafael's passage over Cuba weakened it to a Category 2 storm as it entered the Gulf of Mexico. This made Rafael one of only six November hurricanes ever recorded in the Gulf and one of three Category 2+ storms. By Thursday, Rafael's winds had decreased to 100 mph (160 km/h), and it was bringing heavy rain to Florida and the Florida Keys. The storm also triggered excessive rainfall in parts of Georgia and South Carolina, with some areas receiving over a foot of rain. Satellite images showed that Rafael was losing its structure, with warmer cloud tops and a less symmetrical eyewall. Experts predict that Rafael will weaken as it moves westward over cooler waters and encounters drier air. The storm's future track is uncertain, with models suggesting either a path toward Mexico or a more northerly route toward Louisiana. A northerly route would expose Rafael to higher wind shear and drier air, causing it to weaken rapidly. In other news, a tropical disturbance over the Leeward Islands is expected to bring heavy rain to Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and the southeastern Bahamas. Some models suggest it could develop into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm by early next week.