Le Havre Mayor Race May Shake Up 2027 French Politics

A new poll suggests that former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, who has led the city of Le Havre since 2010, might lose his mayoral seat in next month’s local elections. If this happens, it could dent Philippe’s hopes of running for president in 2027. The survey was conducted by OpinionWay for the Hexagone Institute and released on Wednesday. It predicts that Philippe will top the first round with 37 percent of the vote. However, in a runoff against Communist candidate Jean‑Paul Lecoq, Philippe is expected to fall short. Philippe has long been seen as the best centrist contender to challenge far‑right figures in national polls.He has consistently outperformed Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella in many surveys, even when the margins are tight. In April, an Ifop poll had him and Bardella tied at 50 percent each. A November Odoxa poll even showed Bardella ahead with 53 percent. Philippe has warned that losing in Le Havre would weaken his national standing. He told a television interview last December that failing to win over local voters would make it harder for him to convince the rest of France. The outcome of this municipal contest will be closely watched by political observers, as it could signal shifts in voter sentiment ahead of the presidential race.