Natural Gas Market: What's Shaking Up Prices in 2025?

Natural gas markets are having a wild ride in 2025. Prices are going up and down like a rollercoaster. In the U. S. , the Henry Hub benchmark is feeling the heat from warmer weather, but LNG exports are keeping things interesting. Traders are keeping a close eye on the "widow-maker" spread, which is currently very thin. This means the market is not too worried about a gas shortage, but it's not completely relaxed either. In Europe, the TTF market is feeling the effects of lower wind power output. Storage levels are lower than last year, but the EU has relaxed its storage targets. This means Europe is less likely to panic and buy gas at any cost. However, speculators are heavily short on TTF, which could lead to a price squeeze if there's a sudden cold snap or supply disruption.Asia is seeing a different story. Spot LNG prices have slid to a 20-month low due to weak demand and ample supply. This is important because Asia is often the swing buyer in the global LNG market. The China factor is also playing a big role. China's demand for LNG is softening due to industrial slowdown and increased pipeline gas imports. Looking ahead to 2026, forecasts are mixed. The EIA predicts Henry Hub will average around $4. 01, while Bernstein is betting on a higher equilibrium of $5. Goldman Sachs is forecasting $4. 60 for U. S. gas and €29/MWh for TTF in 2026. The debate is all about how tight the U. S. gas balance will be once new LNG demand kicks in and how quickly production can respond.