Nigeria's opposition struggles to stay united ahead of 2027 elections

Nigeria’s opposition coalition faced a major setback when two top leaders, Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso, left the group just months after its formation. Both had finished third and fourth in the 2023 presidential race and were key to the alliance’s plan to challenge President Bola Tinubu in next year’s election. Their exit highlights how tough it is to keep opposition groups together in Nigeria, where politics often splits along ethnic and religious lines. The alliance, led by the African Democratic Congress, had aimed to unite behind a single candidate to avoid vote-splitting. But Obi and Kwankwaso walked away, complaining about endless legal battles and internal distrust. Now, they’ve joined a different opposition group, the Nigeria Democratic Congress. Their move leaves the original coalition in disarray, with its spokesperson admitting the plan to back one candidate may need a complete rethink.Even before this split, analysts warned that personal ambitions would weaken the alliance. Atiku Abubakar, a longtime northern candidate, and Obi both have strong but competing supporters. Their rivalry made it hard to agree on a leader. Now, with the coalition fractured, Tinubu—who won the last election with just 35% of the vote—looks more secure. The opposition’s combined 60% share in 2023 wasn’t enough to unseat him, and without unity, they’ll struggle again. Political observers say Nigeria’s opposition has a history of failing to stay united. The only time an incumbent lost was in 2015, when opposition groups merged to back Muhammadu Buhari. Without that kind of teamwork, Tinubu’s advantage as the sitting president—with a well-organized party machine—grows even stronger.