Oil Refiners Gain the Upper Hand in a New Battle of Profits
United StatesFri Mar 13 2026
The clash over Iran has shifted the money game for U. S. oil makers, giving them a new chance to earn big in 2026.
Instead of tech giants like Nvidia, the spotlight is on refineries that turn crude into gasoline and diesel.
When prices for oil products rise while the cost of raw oil stays low, refineries can make a lot of money.
A key measure called the “crack spread” shows how much profit a refinery can make from each barrel of oil it processes.
With today’s crude at about $96 a barrel, gasoline near $2. 90 per gallon and diesel around $3. 92, the spread is close to $40 a barrel – almost double what it was before tensions in the Middle East increased.
U. S. refineries already faced fewer competitors because many overseas plants have shut down or stalled.
This means the U. S. system is now a bottleneck, so any disruption in oil supply pushes prices higher and gives U. S. refineries more room to profit.
The VanEck Oil Refiners ETF, which tracks the industry’s performance, has climbed steadily for eleven weeks straight.
Since the war began it is up more than 5%, while the overall market has slipped a little.
If every refinery in the country – about 131 plants that can process 18 million barrels a day – kept running at high capacity, the total profit from the spread could reach roughly $240 billion each year.
That figure is a rough estimate and doesn’t account for costs, but it shows the scale of the opportunity.
Several big refineries are positioned to benefit most.
Valero, for example, makes a large share of diesel, which is especially valuable when diesel supplies tighten.
PBF and Phillips 66 also have geographic advantages that lower their fuel costs during supply shocks, boosting their profits.
Overall, the war has created a rare moment where oil refineries can earn much more than usual.
Investors watching the market may find these companies attractive because they can capture a large share of the “crack spread” boom.
