OPEC+ moves forward with oil production plan despite UAE exit and regional conflicts

Seven major oil producers in OPEC+ have quietly decided to slightly increase their oil output next month, adding about 188, 000 barrels per day. This decision happens even as one of their key members, the UAE, announced it was leaving the group. The increase mirrors a similar move last month, but without the UAE’s contribution. Most of this oil would normally travel through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route now disrupted by tensions between the U. S. and Iran. The ongoing conflict since late February has already reduced oil flow from major producers like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait. Before the fighting started, these countries were the only ones in the group able to adjust production levels. Meanwhile, Iran—also an OPEC member but not part of this decision—has faced export cuts due to U. S. sanctions that began in April. The closures in Hormuz have caused even bigger problems than OPEC+’s planned adjustments.Global oil output dropped sharply in March, falling to 35. 06 million barrels per day from 42. 76 million in February. Iraq and Saudi Arabia cut the most because of the shipping blockage. Russia, another key producer, has also reduced output after drone attacks damaged its infrastructure. Despite these challenges, the seven countries meeting on Sunday—Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Oman—are sticking to their plan. OPEC+ now has 21 members, but only these eight (down to seven after the UAE’s departure) have been actively setting production targets in recent years. The decision to move ahead with the small increase suggests the group wants to show it can still function normally, even as members drop out and global conflicts disrupt trade.