Predicting Future Impairment: A Machine Learning Approach for Osteoporotic Vertebral Fracture Patients

Recent research focused on predicting functional impairment in older adults after being hospitalized for osteoporotic vertebral fractures (OVF). While conservative treatments are common for OVF, some patients still face difficulties with daily tasks once they are discharged. The study aimed to create prediction models using machine learning methods and compare their effectiveness. The data came from a large hospital database, involving patients aged 65 and above who were admitted for OVF between 2014 and 2021. The key outcome was defined as having a Barthel Index score of 60 or less at discharge, indicating significant functional impairment.Using this data, researchers developed three machine learning models: Random Forest, Gradient-Boosting Decision Tree, and Deep Neural Network. They also created a traditional model using Logistic Regression for comparison. The models were tested on a separate dataset, and all showed good performance, with an area under the curve (AUC) exceeding 0. 7. Notably, the Gradient-Boosting Decision Tree model slightly outperformed the others. This study successfully developed models that can predict future functional impairment in OVF patients, which could help healthcare providers plan more effective treatments. Given the rising number of such fractures, these findings could be particularly valuable.