Unexpected Upsets Loom at the Arnold Palmer Invitational

The 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational is back on the PGA Tour calendar, drawing many top names after a short break. FanDuel Sportsbook lists Scottie Scheffler as the most likely winner, with odds of +340. Rory McIlroy follows at +1000, while Tommy Fleetwood (+1900), Matt Fitzpatrick (+2300) and Xander Schauffele (+2500) are also in the running. Before placing any bets, it helps to look at a data‑driven forecast from SportsLine’s advanced model. Created by DFS expert Mike McClure, the system runs 10, 000 simulations for each tournament and has a strong record of accurate predictions, including six major titles in 2025.The model’s output for this event is surprising. Xander Schauffele, though a high favorite, barely appears in the top ten of the simulated leaderboard. Meanwhile, Si Woo Kim, listed at +3300, shows a realistic chance of contending for the title. Three other long‑shot players with odds above +2700 are also projected to challenge for the win. These insights suggest that backing the high‑odds players could pay off. The model’s track record indicates it is worth checking before finalizing any picks.