Unusual Warmth: A Mild Start to the New Year?

The country is in for a surprisingly warm Christmas week, with this mild trend likely to stick around as we step into the New Year. This unexpected warmth could even break some records, especially in the Southern Plains. Places like Wichita and points south might see temperatures soaring high enough to challenge existing records. Meanwhile, states like Nebraska, Iowa, and Illinois could experience temperatures in the 60s, with Indiana and Ohio not far behind. Up in the upper Midwest, the warmth is expected to melt away existing snowpack. Minnesota, Wisconsin, and northern Iowa might wake up to a snow-free Christmas morning, despite having several inches of snow currently. The eastern Midwest could see some light showers, but nothing significant enough to cause any disruptions.The National Weather Service's latest forecast echoes this warm trend, suggesting that the southern parts of the country, all the way down to the Gulf of Mexico, are in for a warmer-than-normal start to the new year. This warmth could bring some short-term relief to drought-stricken areas, as rain rather than snow is expected. The unfrozen ground could allow for some infiltration, potentially alleviating drought conditions. However, this relief might be short-lived. Prolonged warm temperatures and windy days could lead to increased evaporation rates, causing a loss of soil moisture. If the mild weather persists, there's a risk of reverting to drier conditions, undoing some of the recent improvements brought by snowfall. Broader climate patterns, such as the current weak La Niña, will play a significant role in determining the overall winter trend. Historically, La Niña winters tend to be wetter than normal in the Midwest. So, while short-term warmth might complicate things, the broader climate pattern could still tip the scales towards a wetter winter.