US Farmers Shift Crops as War‑Driven Costs Rise

The conflict between Iran and the United States has pushed farmers to rethink what they plant. New data suggest that corn will cover fewer acres than last year, and the amount of spring wheat sown is the lowest in half a century. Prices for fertilizer and diesel have spiked, while grain prices stay low, squeezing profit margins. At the same time, soybean planting is expected to climb. Growers are moving land away from corn and wheat because those crops need more expensive nitrogen fertilizers. In the Midwest, where farmers usually alternate corn and soybeans to keep soil healthy, cost pressures are forcing some to break the pattern. The USDA’s upcoming report will give a snapshot of these shifts, but analysts warn that it may not fully capture the war’s impact. Surveys taken early in March were conducted just as hostilities began, so the numbers could be off. Still, most experts project a drop in corn acreage to about 94 million acres from nearly 99 million last year, while soybeans could rise to roughly 86 million acres. Spring wheat, a staple of the northern Plains, is also falling. The forecasted area is about 9. 8 million acres, down from almost 10 million the previous year and the smallest since 1970. Prices for this grain have slid after Canada’s record harvest last year, making it less attractive.The rise in fertilizer costs is a key driver. Urea prices have climbed roughly 40 % and anhydrous ammonia about 20 % since the war started. Because soybeans use less nitrogen, higher fertilizer prices can make them more profitable than corn or wheat. Many farmers have already booked their fertilizer needs, but uncertainty remains. Farmers are looking for ways to reduce dependence on natural gas‑based fertilizers. Projects like Minnesota’s renewable‑energy ammonia plant aim to lower both cost and carbon footprints. In other regions, options such as hard red spring wheat, durum wheat, canola, and cotton are being considered. Canola, for instance, remains attractive due to strong biofuel demand, even with high fertilizer prices. In the Delta, cotton planting may hit its lowest level in a decade as farmers shift to soybeans, which offer better returns under current input costs. The overall trend shows a move toward crops that are less sensitive to volatile fertilizer prices and more resilient in a changing trade environment.