Why Experts' Opinions Often Align

Have you ever wondered how to combine the thoughts of numerous experts into one solid point of view? A clever method has been suggested to do just that. Imagine experts constantly tweaking their opinions based on what others think. Each time they update, they give more weight to opinions that are similar to their own. This process, called a linear opinion pool, helps all experts eventually agree on the same idea. It's like they're in a room, refining their views until everyone's on the same page.But why would experts favor opinions close to their own? Well, it makes sense if they're rewarded for being accurate. The closer their opinions are to the truth, the higher their score. This scoring system, known as the quadratic scoring rule, encourages experts to pay attention to opinions that are similar to theirs. Real-world data has been used to test this method. The results show that it works quite well, leading experts to a common ground.