Lung Cancer Trends in China Show Age Gap, Forecasts Rise

Lung cancer remains the top killer among cancers worldwide. In China, the disease makes up over a third of all new cancer cases and nearly four out of ten cancer deaths.

Even though a simple scan can cut death rates, very few people in China get screened. As a result, most cases are found when the disease is already advanced. That leads to a much lower chance of surviving five years compared to rich nations.

Researchers examined records from the Xihu Cancer Registry covering 2001 through 2020. They looked at how often each lung‑cancer type appeared, broken down by gender. Using a statistical measure called AAPC, they tracked changes over time, and with a Bayesian model they projected numbers up to 2030.

Incidence stayed low for people under forty, but climbed steeply after that age. The highest rate recorded was about 568 cases per hundred thousand people. The model expects the numbers to keep rising modestly through the next decade.