MLB's Slow and Steady Free Agency: What's Happening and Why

Free agency in Major League Baseball is moving at a different pace this year. Last year, teams spent around $2. 1 billion on free agents by this time, but this year, that number is only $1. 4 billion. However, this doesn't mean the market is slow. In fact, it's moving quickly in some areas and more deliberately in others. Pitching is a hot commodity this winter, and teams are spending big on it. The top five free agents are still without teams, but the ones who have signed are getting more money than expected. For example, Dylan Cease signed for $210 million, which is $65 million over expectations. Pete Alonso and Kyle Schwarber also got big deals. There are still many teams with money to spend. The Boston Red Sox haven't signed anyone, and the New York Yankees have only spent $5 million. The bottom 20 teams have spent less combined than the top team, the Toronto Blue Jays. Top-of-the-market bats like Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Cody Bellinger, and Bo Bichette are still unsigned. There's no panic yet because there are many teams with World Series aspirations and a need for impact players. Bregman and Bellinger are looking for long-term deals, and Tucker is the clear jewel of the class. Bichette is also in demand because of his age and résumé. The market for top-tier starting pitchers is chilly but about to warm up. Framber Valdez, Tatsuya Imai, Ranger Suarez, Michael King, and Zac Gallen are still unsigned, but sources say that could change soon. The Baltimore Orioles, New York Mets, Houston Astros, and other teams are interested in these pitchers.Mid-tier starting pitching is febrile, meaning it's hot and cold. Teams are willing to spend big on back-of-the-rotation arms. Chris Bassitt, Lucas Giolito, Nick Martinez, and other pitchers are still available. The White Sox, Orioles, Angels, Nationals, Mets, Padres, and Diamondbacks are among the teams that have been aggressive in pursuing mid-tier pitchers. Japanese free agents have different rules than domestic free agents. Munetaka Murakami, a 25-year-old corner infielder, must sign with an MLB team by Monday. He has immense power, but teams have concerns about his strikeout rate and defensive position. Tatsuya Imai, a top starting pitcher, is also in demand. His posting window expires on January 2, and teams are trying to sign him before then. The market for non-elite bats is cold. Back-end bats often spill into January and even February before signing. The top-tier ends with Murakami, and the next one begins at Suarez. There are still some solid veterans and youngish switch-hitters available, but the market is sparse. The trade market is tepid, meaning it's lukewarm. At this juncture last winter, many players had been traded, but this winter, the biggest names who have been dealt so far are Brandon Nimmo and Marcus Semien. The players available in trades and even those not necessarily are the sorts that would inject intrigue into any offseason. However, there is gridlock because the corresponding requests in player return have persisted at levels that make acquiring teams too uncomfortable to accede. Relief pitching is scorching but cooling fast. Almost every one of consequence has landed a deal big in years, money, or both. Edwin Diaz, Devin Williams, Robert Suarez, and other relievers have signed big deals. However, the market is cooling fast because many relievers have already signed.