Oil Group Hints at Production Rise While Strait Blocked

OPEC+ may decide to lift its oil output limits next week, according to several insiders. The decision would mainly be symbolic because the main producers cannot actually increase supply while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The closure, caused by the conflict between Iran and its allies, has stopped the biggest oil shipping lane in the world. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq—countries that could have boosted production early in the crisis—now face logistical hurdles. Russia, another key member, is hampered by sanctions and war damage in its own country. In the Gulf region, missile and drone attacks have damaged refineries and pipelines, making it hard to reach normal output levels even if the strait reopens.At March 1, just as the war started to choke oil flows, OPEC+ approved a small increase of 206, 000 barrels per day for April. A month later, analysts estimate that the disruption could cut global supply by 12 to 15 million barrels per day—about 15% of worldwide output. Crude prices have risen to nearly $120 a barrel, the highest in four years. JPMorgan warned that if Hormuz stays closed into mid‑May, prices could exceed $150, a record level. The upcoming meeting will set quotas for May. An increase would show the group’s willingness to raise production once shipping resumes, but experts say it will have little effect while the strait remains blocked. Energy consultancy Energy Aspects described the potential rise as “academic” under current conditions, implying it is more about signaling than real change.