Oil Prices Rise as Traders Bet on Trump‑Triggered Tensions

A surge in speculation has pushed crude oil to new highs. Traders now see a 63 % chance that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) will exceed $110 per barrel this month, up from 59 % the day before. The probability of a $115 barrier has also climbed, from 33 % to 42 %, while the chance of hitting $120 remains modest at 26 %. Polymarket users, a popular prediction platform, were right in April when they wagered on WTI crossing $110. They have already placed almost $19 million in bets, making it one of the most active contracts on the site. The spike follows President Donald Trump’s recent warning to Iran that “the clock is ticking. ” He urged the nation to act quickly or face severe repercussions.In response, an Iranian military spokesman said that U. S. threats could trigger unexpected and harsh consequences for America. The geopolitical drama has already affected oil supply. After the U. S. and Israel launched a joint military operation against Iran, Tehran closed the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off a major shipping route. This move tightened global oil flows and pushed prices upward. Some observers note odd trading patterns in oil futures around political events. In March, more than $500 million was wagered on the market just minutes before Trump posted about “productive” talks with Iran. The timing of these bets raises questions about the link between political rhetoric and market movements.