Poland's Presidential Face-Off: A Choice Between Past and Future

Poland is at a crossroads. On Sunday, voters will decide between two presidential candidates who have very different ideas about the country's future. The current president, Andrzej Duda, is stepping down after two terms. His successor will either push Poland towards a more nationalist path or steer it towards a more liberal, pro-European direction. The stakes are high. The president has the power to veto laws, which means the winner could either support or block the plans of Prime Minister Donald Tusk's centrist government. This election is happening at a tense time. Russia's war in Ukraine has raised security concerns across Europe. Plus, there are ongoing debates within Poland about the rule of law. The first round of voting happened on May 18. Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski got over 31% of the votes, while conservative historian Karol Nawrocki earned nearly 30%. Now, it's down to these two. Polls show they're neck and neck, but there are a few wildcards. Nawrocki did much better than expected in the first round, which could mean his support is stronger than polls suggest. On the other hand, many Poles living abroad have registered to vote in this second round, which might help Trzaskowski. Nawrocki is a 42-year-old historian who was chosen by the national conservative Law and Justice party. He's not a politician, which the party sees as a good thing. They want to refresh their image before the next parliamentary election. Nawrocki's supporters see him as a champion of traditional Polish values. They think his ties with U. S. President Donald Trump could strengthen Poland's relationship with the United States. Meanwhile, Trzaskowski, 53, is Warsaw's mayor and a close ally of Tusk. He's been a big player in national politics for years. He's known for modernizing Warsaw and is seen as pragmatic, with a focus on building ties with other European countries. He lost to Duda in the 2020 presidential election by a narrow margin. Nawrocki has recently gained support from Trump and other U. S. conservatives. They see the Polish election as part of a global battle between liberal and right-wing populist forces. Nawrocki's campaign has echoed themes popular on the American right, like skepticism towards EU bureaucracy and a focus on Christian identity. Many European centrists, however, are backing Trzaskowski. They see him as a defender of democracy against rising authoritarian forces. He has the support of new centrist Romanian President Nicusor Dan, who recently defeated a far-right nationalist. Nawrocki has faced several scandals, but it's unclear if they're hurting him. In fact, they might be helping. Many right-wing voters don't believe the allegations and see them as a media attack. Nawrocki himself has admitted to past fights, including one involving football hooligans. Polish media have also reported on his connections to gangsters and the world of prostitution. Tusk has accused Law and Justice party leader Jarosław Kaczynski of knowing about Nawrocki's past and choosing him anyway. There are three big issues in this election. First, security and the war in Ukraine. Both candidates support helping Ukraine, but to different degrees. Nawrocki doesn't want Ukraine to join NATO, while Trzaskowski thinks it should be allowed to join one day. Second, the rule of law and democracy. Trzaskowski wants to restore judicial independence and repair relations with the EU, which saw changes by Law and Justice as anti-democratic. Nawrocki, however, is likely to preserve Law and Justice's changes that politicized the courts. Third, women's rights. Abortion is a divisive issue in Poland. Trzaskowski supports loosening restrictions, while Nawrocki opposes any liberalization.