Predicting City Growth: A Simple Guide to Modeling Land Use

Cities are always changing, and understanding these changes is crucial. These changes are influenced by many factors. These include the environment, society, economy, and politics. A new approach has been developed to predict these changes using a tool called Dinamica-Ego. This tool helps to create detailed forecasts of how land will be used in the future. The process involves several key steps. First, it is important to set a time frame. This means deciding how far into the future the predictions will go. Next, different future scenarios need to be defined. These scenarios help to visualize what the city might look like under different conditions. For example, one scenario could be what happens if things continue as they are. Another scenario could be what happens if the city becomes more urbanized. The major driving forces behind land use changes must be identified. These could include population growth, economic development, or policy changes. Data needs to be collected and organized. This data will be used to create models of how the land will be used in the future. Landscape metrics for the base year must be calculated. This means measuring different aspects of the landscape at the starting point. Finally, the Dinamica-Ego software is used to create the models. Several sub-steps are involved in this process. These include calculating the transition matrix, preparing the raster cube, and calculating the Weights of Evidence. Multicollinearity needs to be assessed. This means checking if there are any redundant variables in the data. The raster cube needs to be revised. This involves checking the data for accuracy and making any necessary adjustments. The land use change model needs to be validated. This means testing the model to ensure it is accurate. The transition matrix and Weights of Evidence need to be adjusted. Finally, the future land use simulation can be run. This involves using the model to predict how the land will be used in the future. The protocol explains how to simulate land use changes up to the year 2050. Two scenarios are shown: business as usual and increased urbanization in Kaunas, Lithuania. The protocol provides a step-by-step approach to modeling land use change. This approach can be replicated in any urban area. The results obtained using this protocol were well-validated. This means that the predictions are reliable. This approach can be used to predict land use changes in any city. It is a useful tool for urban planners and policymakers. It helps them to make informed decisions about the future of their cities.