Predicting Stock Fluctuations: A Fresh Look with AI

Deep learning has made waves in various fields by handling complex data with ease. One such area is financial time-series prediction, specifically predicting stock price volatility. This involves forecasting if the prices will go up, down, or stay stable. Researchers have been digging into this for decades. Inspired by generative adversarial networks (GAN), which have been superstars in image processing, a new method called ordinal regression GAN for financial volatility trends (ORGAN-FVT) has been proposed. This method aims to tackle the task of predicting stock price trends. The researchers used a blend of convolutional long short-term memory (ConvLSTM) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) to create a better generative model. This combination helps in effectively capturing patterns over time and understanding how stock prices might move. To make the model more useful, ordinal regression was employed in the discriminator part. This step boosts the accuracy of multi-class predictions, which is crucial for real-world applications. The team tested ORGAN-FVT against other top methods using real stock data from Microsoft (MSFT), Tesla (TSLA), and The People’s Insurance Company of China (PICC). The results showed that ORGAN-FVT performed remarkably well, sometimes scoring up to 20. 81% higher in measures like AUC and F1 scores. It's important to think about what this means. If AI can predict stock trends accurately, it could revolutionize how investments are made and managed. But only if these models can consistently outperform traditional methods. Moreover, predicting stock volatility isn't just about making money. It can also help stabilize markets by giving insights into potential risks, making the financial world a bit safer and more predictable.