Putin's War: Why Peace Talks Aren't Working

Estonia's President Alar Karis recently shared his insights on the Russia-Ukraine war and the complexities of negotiating peace. He revealed a conversation with former U.S. President Donald Trump, who had initially claimed they were close to ending the war, but as of October, that wasn't the case.

The Complexity of Peace Negotiations

Karis pointed out that negotiating peace is more complicated than Trump initially thought. Trump's stance has evolved, especially as Putin continues to attack Ukraine and shows no willingness to compromise. Karis explained that Trump's frustration with Putin's empty promises led to some action.

U.S. Sanctions on Russian Oil Companies

The U.S. recently imposed sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, marking the first time Trump's administration has taken such a step since returning to office. These sanctions aim to hurt Russia's economy and make it harder for them to fund the war.

Estonia's Experience with Russia

Estonia, a small country with a history of being part of the Soviet Union, shares a border with Russia. Just last month, Russian fighter jets entered Estonian airspace, part of a larger pattern of incursions into NATO countries. Estonia has faced over 80 such incidents in the past 20 years, which Karis believes are testing NATO's response.

NATO's Response and Trump's Stance

NATO has been quick to react, scrambling jets to escort Russian planes out or take down drones. Karis thinks this sends a clear message: do not mess with them. However, Trump's support for NATO has been inconsistent. He has complained about U.S. spending on the alliance and pushed European countries to do more for their own defense.

Estonia's Defense Investments

Estonia is stepping up its defense game, aiming to spend 5.4% of its GDP on defense next year. The country is investing in drones and AI, thanks to its advanced digital economy. However, Karis is realistic about Estonia's size and capabilities, acknowledging the need for allies like NATO to keep them safe.

The Future of NATO and U.S. Support

The big question is how much NATO can rely on U.S. support, especially as the U.S. is pulling some troops out of Europe. Karis warned that European countries should prepare for this, but he also believes that U.S. forces are still an important deterrent to Russia. He doesn't want Europe to create a separate defense system when NATO already exists.

Estonia's Reliance on Allies

Karis emphasized that Estonia cannot handle security threats alone. He reminded everyone that even with a strong army, small countries need friends to stay safe. This is a lesson from history, and it's one that Estonia takes seriously.