Russia's Strategic Moves: Missiles, Drones, and Oil Games

Russia's military actions in Ukraine took a dramatic turn with the launch of an Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile targeting Lviv Oblast. This strike, confirmed by both Ukrainian and Russian officials, is seen as a strategic move to deter Western support for Ukraine. The missile, launched from the Kapustin Yar test site in Astrakhan Oblast, carried a dummy warhead, causing damage to an archive facility but not the intended gas storage site. The Kremlin's justification for the strike was a claimed Ukrainian drone attack on Russian President Vladimir Putin's residence, which Western intelligence disputed. The use of a nuclear-capable missile with a multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) payload was likely a show of force to intimidate Western nations from providing military support to Ukraine, particularly in the form of a multinational assurance force.Meanwhile, Russian forces conducted a large-scale drone and missile strike on Kyiv Oblast, resulting in significant power outages and civilian casualties. The Ukrainian Air Force reported downing most of the missiles and drones, but the damage was substantial, affecting critical infrastructure and leaving thousands without power. In the ongoing conflict in Eastern Ukraine, Russian forces continued their offensive operations but did not make significant advances. The focus remains on pushing Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and capturing the remainder of Luhansk Oblast. The fighting is intense, with daily combat engagements and Russian forces using infiltration tactics to gain ground. On the economic front, the US Navy seized another oil tanker linked to Russia, attempting to bypass US sanctions against Venezuelan oil. Multiple oil tankers operating near Venezuela have recently reregistered under Russian flags in an effort to evade US Coast Guard boarding attempts.